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2024 National K-12: Does a Higher Rating Lead to a Higher Standing?

Yang Liu

Statistics of 2024 National K-12 Grades Championship
https://www.uschess.org/results/2024/k12/

Update: An interactive chart of all players has been added

Over 2,600 contestants from 43 states participated in the 2024 National K-12 Grades Championship

The 2024 National K-12 Grades Championship attracted a total of 2,679 participants from 43 states. More than 1,000 participants (40%) came from New York, followed by Virginia with 250 participants (9%) and New Jersey with 218 participants (8%).

Fourth grade (age 9) is the most competitive, with nearly 350 participants.

Grades 3, 4, and 5 have the highest number of participants, while Grade K has the fewest.

11th Grade boasts the highest average rating of 1,600.

The average rating of more than 2,600 participants is 1,115, with a median of 1,062 and a standard deviation of 514. Ninety percent of the participants have ratings between 300 and 1,989.

The plot below shows the distribution of ratings across grades. The mean is indicated by the red bar, and the black bars in the boxplot represent the median.

Does a higher rating guarantee a higher standing?

Not necessarily! To make the data comparable across grades, we standardized the standings by calculating the percentile within each grade, scaling the values from 0 to 100. Similarly, we calculated the rating percentile within each grade. (This additional standardization for rating is not necessary when examining each grade separately.)

The plot below illustrates the relationship between standing and rating, both standardized within each grade, with different colors representing different grades.

While the correlation between standardized rating and percentile is indeed strong, it may not be as strong as some might expect. Although the correlation is statistically significant due to the large sample size, the R-squared value (from a fitted linear regression) is only 0.75. This indicates that the relationship isn’t as robust as it might initially appear. There is substantial variation in standing within each rating percentile. Outliers—such as cases where a high-ranked player drops out mid-match—further weaken the correlation.

The red lines in the chart represent a LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) curve, providing a non-linear fit.

If plot rating without standardization

Percentile of standing vs. Rating by Grade!

Colored by rating category

Points Achieved vs. Rating

Points achieved determined the final standings. This provides another perspective on the variation in ratings among participants who achieved the same number of points.

The histogram at the top also shows that most kids achieved 3 or 4 points.

Points Achieved vs. Rating by Grade!